A new report from Aurora Energy Research, commissioned by the Alliance for Clean Energy New York (ACENY), concluded that offshore wind is the only viable near-term solution to address downstate New York's escalating energy reliability concerns. This finding is particularly urgent as the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) projects potential electricity shortfalls in New York City as early as this year.

The urgency is underscored by a variety of factors straining the energy system in New York City and Long Island. These downstate regions face rising reliability challenges driven by significant transmission constraints, which make importing sufficient generation difficult and costly to expand. Compounding this, New York’s peak demand is forecasted to grow quickly, largely due to increased electrification, with winter demand seeing particularly sharp increases. Furthermore, tightening capacity margins are a critical concern; NYISO has estimated that New York City could experience a deficit of up to 461 MW for several hours in 2025 if the planned retirements of older, fossil fuel-fired generators proceed, highlighting an immediate need for new, local power sources.

Finding enough land for new power sources in downstate New York is a major hurdle. This scarcity not only limits how much new energy infrastructure can be built but also significantly drives up construction costs. In fact, Aurora estimates it's about 1.4 times more expensive to build new energy projects in downstate regions compared to upstate. Offshore wind neatly avoids this problem because its power generation facilities are located out at sea, with minimal land use on the coast. This is a huge advantage for densely populated areas like New York City (Zone J) and Long Island (Zone K). Aurora's long-term modeling shows that New York will need approximately 15 GW of offshore wind by 2040. If the state tried to get the same amount of power from solar, it would need around 520 square miles of land. For land-based wind power, it would be about 680 square miles. Even if New York City tried to generate the needed electricity with traditional sources, it would still require developing 15 square miles of land (roughly 1,750 Manhattan city blocks).

The report also notes that alternatives to offshore wind face significant challenges other than land use. For instance, developing new natural gas power plants (thermal generation) is severely hampered by shortages in essential components like gas turbines, leading to long project lead times that can extend up to eight years. This bottleneck is intensified by surging global demand for these turbines; GE Vernova, one of the world's largest manufacturers, reported a 90% increase in orders between 2023 and 2024, directly contributing to these extended timelines. Meanwhile, other potential zero-emission technologies, such as small modular nuclear reactors or hydrogen-fuel peaking plants, have not yet reached the commercial scale required to make a significant impact in the near term.

Offshore wind is uniquely positioned to meet this growing demand. According to Aurora, it is the only net-new generation capacity currently in the queue for New York that can realistically add supply within this decade. To interconnect into the NYISO grid, projects are required to enter the interconnection queue (ICQ). Clearing the queue takes several years, giving an indication of all capacity likely to come online in the next ~4 years. While 1.8 GW of battery storage (BESS) and 1.3 GW of transmission could be online by 2027, offshore wind is the only net new generation capacity in the queue for downstate NY.

"Offshore wind is poised to provide much needed relief to the tightening NYISO system," said Julia Hoos, Head of USA East at Aurora Energy Research. "Without offshore wind, we find that New York becomes increasingly dependent on importing power from its neighbors in New England and the Mid-Atlantic — and those regions face tight conditions at exactly the same time. Offshore wind can help alleviate this pressure and shelter New Yorkers from high energy prices associated with cold winters and fluctuating gas prices.”

Key benefits of offshore wind highlighted in the report include:

• Enhanced Energy Independence: Developing in-state offshore wind reduces reliance on imports, particularly during peak winter periods when neighboring regions also face high demand.

  
  

• Consumer Cost Savings: Aurora estimates that if the Empire Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and South Fork Wind projects had been operational during a single cold, high-cost month in 2022, New Yorkers could have saved $77 million in electricity costs. These savings are projected to be even higher in future winters.

  
  

• Land-Use Efficiency: To meet New York’s energy goals, approximately 15 GW of offshore wind would be needed by 2040. Generating the equivalent with solar or land-based wind would require over 600 square miles of land, a significant challenge in space-constrained downstate New York.

  
  

• Meeting Climate Goals: Offshore wind deployment is crucial for decarbonization, potentially leading to a decrease in the social cost of carbon by up to $1 billion in annual savings by 2040.

Overall, the evidence strongly indicates that offshore wind is uniquely positioned to address New York's burgeoning energy demands in the most economically sound way. It stands out as the optimal path forward to maintain affordable energy prices, especially during challenging winter months, while simultaneously bolstering grid reliability and advancing the state's energy independence. With mounting pressure on the existing energy infrastructure and a scarcity of viable alternatives, the findings of the Aurora report underscore that investing in offshore wind is not just a timely and practical decision, but an essential one for securing New York’s energy future.

Check out the full report by Aurora Energy Research here: Meeting New York’s Energy Needs: Reliability & Offshore Wind