Offshore Wind: The Reliability Anchor Hiding in Plain Sight

As electricity demand surges and fossil generation retires, North America’s grid is entering a reliability crunch. According to NERC, half the U.S. grid could face capacity shortfalls within the decade. In PJM, summer peaks are forecast to reach 230 GW by 2045, while New York’s winter peak could hit 52 GW by 2040 — more than double today’s level.

Traditionally, gas has been the grid’s safety net. But that role is slipping. Turbine backlogs now push deployment into the 2030s, and new 25% steel and aluminum tariffs add cost and complexity. Even firm resources are proving far less firm than assumed.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are the next big hope for some. On paper, they offer scalable, flexible, zero-carbon nuclear capacity. But early analysis pegs SMR costs at $863/kW annually — about $109/MWh, assuming a generous 90% capacity factor. As Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.” The pattern of underestimating costs for complex, capital-heavy infrastructure should give anyone pause.

SMRs remain unproven at scale, subject to long permitting timelines, and exposed to the same material tariffs now hobbling other technologies. And beyond economics, they reopen nuclear’s thorniest questions — from operational risk to multi-century waste management. The U.S. has no active plan for permanent high-level waste storage, and Yucca Mountain remains stalled. Expecting institutions to safely steward radioactive material over millennia, when most policy can barely see past the next budget cycle, is a gamble with profound implications.

What we need is a resource that’s reliable, scalable, clean, and ready to build now. That’s offshore wind.

Solar and onshore wind are foundational to our energy future, and the recent surge in storage is a welcome boon. But storage still needs power. Offshore wind brings unique value: strong, steady output during winter, when electrification-driven demand is rising. Along the Eastern Seaboard, ELCC studies show offshore wind delivering up to 69% of its nameplate capacity during peak conditions. In New York, a 25 GW offshore portfolio could contribute up to 10 GW of winter reliability — nearly 20% of peak. In PJM, New Jersey’s 11 GW target could deliver 7.6 GW of ELCC-qualified capacity. 

Pull offshore wind from the table, and reserve margins collapse. Up to 20 GW of dependable, clean capacity disappears. Scarcity pricing kicks in. Ratepayers take the hit — or worse yet, are left in the dark. 

And this all assumes everything else goes right — new gas, storage, seamless imports. But now even Canadian hydro imports face a 25% tariff — a cost hit households can ill afford — especially during winter, when rising grocery prices, heating bills, and inflation have already strained family budgets.

Like all new generation in active development, offshore wind is tariff-exposed today — but once built, it delivers power without volatile fuel costs, trade dependencies, or emissions. And as we’ll explore in a future piece, the influence of zero-fuel resources on market pricing may prove just as powerful. 

Resilience isn’t ideological — it’s structural. And offshore wind is a pillar we can’t afford to remove. 

You don’t need to believe in climate change to believe in keeping the lights on. You just need to believe in the numbers. And they say offshore wind isn’t a luxury — it’s a lifeline.